<table class="texreg" style="margin: 10px auto;border-collapse: collapse;border-spacing: 0px;caption-side: bottom;color: #000000;border-top: 2px solid #000000;">
<caption>Statistical models</caption>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Dem. transition</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Dem. transition</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Dem. breakdown</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Dem. breakdown</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr style="border-top: 1px solid #000000;">
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Mobilization for democracy</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.93<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.67<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.08)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.10)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.12)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.14)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Mobilization for autocracy</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.72<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.73<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.75<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.26<sup>*</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.11)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.13)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.10)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.13)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">GDP per capita (log)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.04</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.19)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.18)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">GDP growth rate</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.02</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.10<sup>*</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.02)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.04)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Gas and oil production (log)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.02)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.02)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Population (log)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.10</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.14)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.14)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Avg. years of education</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.07</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.36<sup>***</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.07)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.09)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Ethnic fractionalization</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.72</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.95</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.65)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.64)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Intrastate conflict</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.21</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.80<sup>**</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.31)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.31)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Ruling party dimension</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-2.15<sup>*</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(1.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Military dimension</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.22</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.43)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Hereditary dimension</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-4.42<sup>**</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(1.63)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Elected president</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.89<sup>**</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.33)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Party institutionalization index</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-2.33<sup>*</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.91)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">High court independence</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.15)</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border-top: 1px solid #000000;">
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">AIC</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">1078.98</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">700.51</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">847.29</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">488.66</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">R<sup>2</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.04</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.05</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.02</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.03</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Max. R<sup>2</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.16</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.16</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.16</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Num. events</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">139</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">105</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">94</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">65</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Num. obs.</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">7582</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">4947</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">5336</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">3570</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Missings</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">809</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">3444</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">1010</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">2776</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border-bottom: 2px solid #000000;">
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">PH test</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">1.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">1.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">1.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.10</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td style="font-size: 0.8em;" colspan="5"><sup>***</sup>p &lt; 0.001; <sup>**</sup>p &lt; 0.01; <sup>*</sup>p &lt; 0.05</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
